Last week, the Workers' Party Congress appeared to anoint Kim Jong Un as the successor to current leader Kim Jong-Il. The former was appointed a general of the North Korean armed forces and a member of the Workers' Party Central Committee. We believe that these appointments are intended to secure support for Kim Jong Un among the military and party elite.
The current leader's health is widely believed to be weak. An abrupt change of leadership within the next two years or so would place an inexperienced leader with an uncertain support base in charge of the country. This is likely to undermine stability in North Korea and raise the risks of either military conflict on the Korean peninsula or a sudden Korean reunification.
A South Korean Presidential Council estimated earlier this year that sudden reunification could cost the country US$2.14 trillion by 2040 to raise government debt to 147% of GDP in that year, compared with the government's estimate of 36% by the end of this year.
Media Contact:
Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212.438.5054, [email protected]
Analyst Contacts:
KimEng Tan, Singapore (65) 6239-6350
David T Beers, London (44) 20-7176-7101