Only 1.6% Of All Speculative-Grade Entities Are Expected To Default In The U.S. Through March 2012, Article Says

Stocks and Financial Services Press Releases Thursday April 21, 2011 07:58
Bangkok--21 Apr--Standard & Poor's

Standard & Poor's baseline projection for the U.S. corporate trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate for March 2012 is 1.6%. A total of 24 issuers would need to default from April 2011 to March 2012 to reach the forecast, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research, titled "U.S. Corporate Default Rate Expected To Decline To 1.6% By March 2012."

"The projection of 1.6% is another 0.86-percentage-point, or another 35%, decline from the 2.46% default rate in March 2011. This rate of decline would be sharp, but slower than the decline over the past 16 months," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research. "Improved lending conditions and a lower cost of capital are keeping our default expectations relatively upbeat in the next 12 months. We are seeing stronger credit quality, as reflected in fewer downgrades and lower negative bias."

In addition to our baseline projection, we forecast the default rate in our optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In our optimistic default rate forecast scenario, the economy and the financial markets improve more than expected. As a result, we would expect the default rate to be 1.2% (18 defaults in the next 12 months).

On the other hand, if the economic recovery stalls and the financial markets deteriorate--which is our pessimistic scenario--we expect the default rate to be 3.3% (50 defaults) by March 2012.

The report is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. If you are not a RatingsDirect subscriber, you may purchase a copy of the report by calling (1) 212-438-7280 or sending an e-mail to research_request@standardandpoors.com. Ratings information can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site by using the Ratings search box located in the left column at www.standardandpoors.com. Members of the media may request a copy of this report by contacting the media representative provided.

Media Contact:
Mimi Barker, New York (1) 212-438-5054, mimi_barker@standardandpoors.com
Analyst Contacts:
Diane Vazza, New York (1) 212-438-2760

Latest Press Release

Photo Release: KBank opens new flagship branch and THE WISDOM Lounge at ICONSIAM

Mr. Wirawat Panthawangkul (3rd from left), KBank Senior Executive Vice President, and Ms. Chadatip Chutrakul (4th from left), Director of ICONSIAM Co., Ltd., and Chief Executive Officer of Siam Piwat Co., Ltd., participated in the opening ceremony of...

Photo Release: CIMB Group Joins RippleNet to Power Instant Payments Across ASEAN

Tengku Dato' Sri Zafrul Aziz, Group CEO of CIMB Group (right), and Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple CEO (left) commemorating the strategic collaboration between CIMB Group and Ripple to power instant payments across ASEAN at the Singapore FinTech festival 2018...

CIMB Group Joins RippleNet to Power Instant Payments Across ASEAN

CIMB is one of the first banks to leverage blockchain technology to tap into region's USD120 billion remittance business CIMB Group ("CIMB" or "the Group") and Ripple have entered into a strategic collaboration to enable instant cross border payments...

Fitch Rates EXIM#s USD Senior Notes #BBB+(EXP)#

Fitch Ratings has assigned an expected rating of 'BBB+(EXP)' to Export-Import Bank of Thailand's (EXIM, BBB+/Stable) five-year senior unsecured notes of up to USD300 million. The notes will be issued under the bank's USD1.5 billion medium-term note (MTN)...

KTC joins hands with partners to launch new payment method Garmin Pay.

Mrs. Pittaya Vorapanyasakul (right center), Executive Vice President - Credit Card Business, "KTC" or Krungthai Card Public Company Limited together with Mr. Krairop Luang U-Thai (left center), General Manager, GIS Company Limited, Miss Aileen Chew...

Related Topics