Mr. Boonchai Charassangsomboon, Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, Fiscal Policy Office, revealed that “In January 2012, Thai economy continued to show a sign of recovery, particularly from a rebound in private consumption and investment. This was reflected by the real value-added-tax (VAT) collection that grew 6.0 percent from year earlier. Likewise, passenger car sales showed a smaller contraction of -9.8 percent from a year earlier, an improvement from the previous month decrease of -28.1 percent. Meanwhile, private investment also showed an expansion, as indicated by commercial car sales that grew by 29.1 percent per year, a major improvement from the previous month contraction of -46.9 percent. Furthermore, export sector (Preliminary data) showed an improvement with an expansion of 1.2 percent from a year earlier, compared to the -2.0 percent contraction in December 2011. This reflected an improving production capacity in manufacturing exports. Also, supply-side indicators suggested a recovery in manufacturing sector after the severe flood disaster during the October-November 2011. Manufacturing Production Index in January 2012 showed a smaller contraction of -15.1 percent, compared to the sharp fall of -25.2 percent in the previous month. This was mainly due to an increase in production of petroleum, cement, electrical appliances and electronics goods. In addition, agricultural production continued to grow despite at a slower rate, while service sector as reflected by the number of inbound tourists in January 2012 pointed to an improvement.”
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit, Senior Expert on Macroeconomic Policy, further elaborated that “Thai Economy in the 4th quarter of 2011 contracted -9.0 percent from the same period last year due to the major flood disaster, which resulted in the 0.1 percent of GDP growth for 2011. Nevertheless, improving economic indicators in January 2012 from both demand and supply perspectives implied that Thai economy should experience a rebound from the first quarter of 2012 onwards.”
Executive Director of Macroeconomic Policy Bureau, Fiscal Policy Office concluded that “Economic indicators in January 2012 reflected a continual recovery from the flood crisis. However, going forward, global economic situation needs to be closely monitored, especially the Eurozone economy regarding the resolution of the debt crisis, as well as the rise in oil price owing to the uncertainty in the Middle East. These issues could negatively impacted Thai economy in the future. Nevertheless, Thai economy in 2012 would benefit from the government policies aiming at supporting domestic consumption and investment and building up investor confidence. As such, the Fiscal Policy Office would revise the 2012 GDP forecast in March 2012 accordingly.