Russian-Ukrainian war to be protracted-rising oil prices, the index continues to declined consecutive, opened for tourism sector to economic stimulus

Thursday 09 June 2022 15:15
Mr.Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), revealed that Thailand Industry Sentiment Index (TISI) for May 2022 was 84.3, which decreased from 86.2 in April 2022. The index has declined for 2 consecutive months. Every component of index decreased such as overall orders, overall sales volume, production volume, operating costs, and profits. In addition, Russian-Ukrainian war to be protracted and severe making in the oil prices in the world market including commodity prices and raw material prices are rising. These factors negatively affect to the confidence of entrepreneurs. Besides, the higher business operating costs affect to entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector, especially SMEs. While domestic demand also recovered slowly caused from high inflation and living costs affect to reduced purchasing power of people which is reflected by the Index's, purchase orders and sale volumes decreased from the previous month. However, entrepreneurs still have faced with pressure from global economy still uncertainty caused from Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as the shutdown of China's cities has also resulted in problems of supply shortage, especially semiconductor shortages used to manufacture automobiles and electronic products which affect to Thai export sectors.
Russian-Ukrainian war to be protracted-rising oil prices, the index continues to declined consecutive, opened for tourism sector to economic stimulus

Although, there are also contributing factors from the government has gradually relaxed the strict measures to control COVID-19 after the decreased outbreak of the Omicron strain makes economic activities increased. While the opening policy of country and canceled Test & Go rules will promote the tourism and domestic economy.
The survey, which was conducted in May 2022 from 1,323 enterprises, covering 45 industry clubs nationwide, unveiled concerning factors for entrepreneurs are fuel prices (85.5), global economy (65.7) and domestic economy (59.0) respectively. While factors of COVID-19 pandemic situation (55.5), THB/USD exchange rates in exporters' view (36.4), domestic politics (35.1) and loan interest rates (33.2) helped relaxing enterprises' concerns respectively.

TISI for the next 3 months is forecasted at 96.7, having increased from 95.9 in April due to supportive factors from opening up the country to welcome tourists, unlock COVID-19 control measures, including the government will consider Covid 19 as an endemic disease which entrepreneurs believe that it will have a positive effect on the Thai economy, trade, investment and tourism industry in the second half-year of 2022. However, they still have to monitor the uncertainty of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may be a factor that may undermine the growth of the Thai economy.

Policy Recommendations to the Government sector:

  1. Offering the government negotiate to find out new sources of raw materials that have potential to replace, especially fertilizers, animal feeds, chemicals, etc., as well as promote the use of domestic raw materials more to reduce dependence on imported products and for stability in the long term.
  2. Issuing measures to help SMEs entrepreneurs such as subsidies, maintaining employment, encouraging low interest loans to enhance liquidity in business operations
  3. To request the government to open up the country for welcoming tourists again in full and issuing measures to attract the qualitied foreign tourists to promote the economy in the second half-year of 2022.
  4. To maintain the stability of the baht at an appropriate level.

In addition, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has complied the survey results of TISI as well as data on economic and industry indicators from various agencies for the past 3 years. It is prepared as a dashboard published on Data Space (iDS) website of FTI to facilitate entrepreneurs and the general public to access useful information in their business operations. You may access the said information service at www.fti.or.th/ids
The Federation of Thai Industries aims to "strengthen the Thai industry for a stronger Thailand."

Source: Federation of Thai Industries

Russian-Ukrainian war to be protracted-rising oil prices, the index continues to declined consecutive, opened for tourism sector to economic stimulus