Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in December 2023 are as follows.
- Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (March 2024) is in "bullish" zone (120-159 of FETCO ICI Criterion), up 38.9 percent from the previous month to 137.00.
- Confidence of retail and proprietary is in "neutral" zone. Foreign investors are "bullish" while institutional investors are "very bullish".
- Most attractive sector is Banking (BANK).
- Least attractive sector to investors is Petrochemicals and Chemicals (PETRO).
- Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is fund inflow.
- Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is local economic retreat.
"The survey results in December 2023 show that investor's confidence across categories improved from a month earlier, with retail investors up 29.4 percent to 119.70, proprietary investors up 16.7 percent to 100.00, institutional investors up 17.9 percent to 160.00 and foreign investors up 50.0 percent to 150.00.
SET Index in December was boosted by Fed's keeping its policy rate on hold at 5.00 - 5.25 percent while the Bank of Thailand keeping its policy rate on hold at 2.50 percent as expected. Launches of ThaiESG mutual funds also supported the sentiment. However, trading volume in December was relatively low as foreign investors were in holiday mode. Foreign investors were net buyers of THB 70 million although they closed the year as net sellers of THB 192,083 million. At month-end, the SET Index closed at 1,415.85, up 2.6 percent from a month earlier.
External factors to monitor include trend of dovish interest rate direction in major economies including the U.S. and Europe due to sooner-than-expected inflation slowdown. China's economic stimulus is also on the watch. Besides, geopolitical risk remains following ongoing conflict between Isarael and Hamas while Russia-Ukraine conflict is still around. In addition, election results in Taiwan on 13 January 2024 will be an important indicator that could trigger Taiwan-China encounter. Locally, eyes are on public investment that tends to be lower-than-expected following 2024 fiscal budget delay, recovery in exports, which track improving global trade environment, and tourism recovery situation given to lower-than-expect tourists from China.
Source: Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations