Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Chief Research Officer at InnovestX, comments, The global economic overview for the Golden Dragon Year of 2024 anticipates a year emphasizing 'A Year of Value Investing.' The Thai stock market presents numerous opportunities for long-term investors as it features stocks with prices significantly lower than their intrinsic values. The Asian stock market is more intriguing than leading markets such as the United States and Europe due to its sustained high growth rates. With inflation rates adjusting downward, there is a likelihood of increased foreign capital flowing into Asian stock markets. This is particularly true if the value of the U.S. dollar weakens.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Senior Analyst, Wealth Research at InnovestX, adds, "In 2024, we are entering a period of economic growth with lower potential compared to previous years, prompting central banks worldwide, except Japan, to begin reducing interest rates. Our asset allocation recommendations for this year can be summarized as follows: 1) Emphasize investment in high-quality debt instruments, including government bonds and corporate bonds with Investment Grade ratings or higher, benefiting from the expected decline in interest rates in the future. 2) Invest in Asian stocks, including those in Thailand, which are more attractive than developed markets due to the recovering economy. Global stock investments in the second half of 2024 are expected to improve as the economy rebounds, with a focus on Value and Cyclical stocks. 3) Diversify investments into alternative assets such as gold and REITs."
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Senior Economist at InnovestX, concludes, "Developed economies like the United States and Europe are entering a period of slowdown in the first half of 2024, leading the Fed to potentially reduce interest rates by 1% in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, China's economy is gradually recovering with support from monetary policy easing. However, it still faces structural challenges, particularly in the area of deflation. Regarding the Thai economy in 2024, we believe that Digital Wallet measures are a crucial factor driving economic growth. If the Digital Wallet measures pass as announced by the government, they could expand the Thai economy by 4.1%. However, if these measures do not pass, we anticipate a more modest expansion of 3.2%. We do not expect the Bank of Thailand to reduce interest rates in 2024, with two key factors to monitor: 1) the persistent contraction of inflation and 2) the government's implementation of Digital Wallet measure."
Mr. Sitthichai Duangrattanachaya, Senior Global Equity Strategist at InnovestX, shares insights into the investment strategy for the first quarter of 2024, stating, "The overall investment landscape in the first quarter of 2024 remains highly volatile. We anticipate potential economic setbacks in the United States, leading to increased market fluctuations. However, stocks in Thailand and Asia, where economies are beginning to recover, may offer more attractive investment opportunities than those in developed markets. In the Thai stock market, we expect an upward adjustment, but volatility will persist throughout the year. Contributing factors include the gradual disbursement of budget allocations and government stimulus measures. Sustainable and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) stocks will gain significance and attract increased investment. Regarding foreign stocks, we recommend investing in companies related to technology themes benefiting from AI usage, suitable for long-term investment. Semiconductor manufacturers are entering an upward cycle, and recovery remains interesting in the first half of 2024. Additionally, investments in quality stocks that have experienced significant price declines are emphasized."
"In summary, 2024 is expected to be a year of continued market fluctuations in both the global and Thai stock markets. This is likely due to three key factors. Firstly, economic factors, uncertainties arise from the economic conditions in the United States, which may face a potential downturn in the first half of 2024. Additionally, the direction of the U.S. interest rates, whether they will decrease rapidly as anticipated by the financial markets or not, could significantly impact the future outlook for global and Thai stock markets (a slower-than-expected decline might lead to market disappointments). China is facing significant structural challenges, resulting in slower-than-average growth and a gradual loss of economic dominance to India. It is also essential to monitor Japan's central bank's monetary policy, specifically when it might cease easing. Additionally, the progress of the Digital Wallet project and whether it aligns with the government's goals. Secondly, Geopolitics, is poised to introduce fluctuations to financial markets at certain intervals. Potential impacts on the economy may stem from conflicts affecting energy and food prices, as well as disruptions in transportation and broader economic warfare, such as the U.S.-China tensions. In 2024, it is essential to observe China's stance towards Taiwan post the completion of presidential elections (impacting semiconductor business) and the U.S. presidential elections in November, which could have ongoing consequences for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The third factor, challenging to predict but crucial not to overlook, is climate change and natural disasters, emphasized by Mr. Sukit
Mr. Pichai Lertsupongkit, Chief Commercial Officer at InnovestX, concludes that "When interest rates have peaked, bonds and gold tend to provide favorable returns, while stocks continue to exhibit volatility. Regarding international market investments, the tax policy introduces concerns into the market. We believe that investing in foreign markets remains crucial and is an attractive option for investors due to the diverse range of alternative assets and greater investment opportunities. At InnovestX, we offer a platform that supports investors in accessing a comprehensive range of assets, coupled with the continuous development of new products and services. For instance, our collaboration with TradingView allows investors to directly trade Thai stocks through InnovestX accounts on the TradingView platform. In the near future, investors will also have the capability to trade various other assets. InnovestX remains at the forefront of financial innovation, committed to developing a platform that addresses investment needs in all market conditions. We invite investors to explore the diverse opportunities available on our platform and look forward to continuing our innovative strides in the realm of finance and investment"
For those investors keen on keeping up with the latest news and investment analyses from InnovestX, additional information can be found at www.innovestx.co.th
Source: InnovestX Securities
