A study conducted[1] by Professor Canes-Wrone from Princeton University and Park Jee-Kwang in 2014 indicated a downturn in housing transactions in the United States due to the policy uncertainty engendered by elections. The extent of this uncertainty, however, was dependent on the competitiveness of the race and the variance in policy agendas.
We observe a similar trend in Thailand as well during the recent election. We calculated an index based on daily visitor views on listings, employing a 30-day moving average to temper the time series. The base date was January 1, 2022. Post the dissolution of the Thai parliament on March 20, 2023, there was a slight upturn in views, which subsequently maintained a steady state.
Views for landed residential properties followed a more consistent trend, gradually tapering off until the elections drew nearer, when we noticed a slight increase in May 2023.
"It appears that property seekers, especially those considering high-value investments, generally adopt a "wait-and-see" stance during elections, pending more lucidity on prospective policy directions. Further, a subdued global economy likely augments this cautious attitude, resulting in diminished demand." noted Dr.Lee Nai Jia, Head of Real Estate Intelligence, Data and Software Solutions, PropertyGuru Group.
Figure 1: Index for number of views of residential property in Bangkok before and after election
Source: DataSense by PropertyGuru for Business
Intriguingly, a similar trend was observed in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, albeit potentially exacerbated by the surge in travel during December.
Figure 2: Index for number of views of non-landed residential property in Kuala Lumpur before and after election
Source: DataSense by PropertyGuru for Business
Following the announcement of the Thai election results on May 14, 2023, we noted a rebound in property interest, as evidenced by a rise in the Thai index to a new equilibrium level. This resurgence likely signifies increased confidence in the long-term economic outlook, given that property purchases typically have a longer investment horizon than equity markets.
"Nevertheless, signs of demand easing were observed towards the end of June, possibly due to uncertainties surrounding the election of the Prime Minister by the Thai Senate and House of Representatives. We expect the market to bounce back once the Prime Minister's appointment is finalized, and then macroeconomic trends are likely to regain dominance in shaping market behavior.", noted Dr.Lee.
[1] Canes-Wrone, B., & Park, J. (2014). Elections, Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment. British Journal of Political Science, 44(1), 83-106. doi:10.1017/S000712341200049X
About DDproperty
DDproperty is the No.1 property marketplace in Thailand, and part of PropertyGuru Group (PropertyGuru Group - NYSE: PGRU), Southeast Asia's leading PropTech company. DDproperty transformed the way Thais find homes by taking property online and has since been helping them make confident property decisions.
Currently with more than 54%* market share, DDproperty is the preferred destination for property seekers to find and own their dream home. For more information, please visit www.DDproperty.com; www.PropertyGuruGroup.com or visit us on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and Linkedin
*Source: Based on SimilarWeb data between October 2022 and March 2023.
About PropertyGuru Group
PropertyGuru is Southeast Asia's leading1 PropTech company, and the preferred destination for over 37 million property seekers2 to connect with almost 60,000 agents3 monthly to find their dream home. PropertyGuru empowers property seekers with more than 2.9 million real estate listings4, in-depth insights, and solutions that enable them to make confident property decisions across Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
PropertyGuru.com.sg was launched in Singapore in 2007 and since then, PropertyGuru Group has made the property journey a transparent one for property seekers in Southeast Asia. In the last 15 years, PropertyGuru has grown into a high-growth PropTech company with a robust portfolio including leading property marketplaces and award-winning mobile apps across its core markets; mortgage marketplace, PropertyGuru Finance; home services platform, Sendhelper; a host of proprietary enterprise solutions under PropertyGuru For Business including DataSense, ValueNet, Awards, events and publications across Asia.
For more information, please visit: PropertyGuruGroup.com; PropertyGuru Group on LinkedIn.
1 Based on SimilarWeb data between October 2022 and March 2023.
2 Based on Google Analytics data between October 2022 and March 2023.
3 Based on data between January 2023 and March 2023.
4 Based on data between October 2022 and March 2023.
PropertyGuru Group of Websites:
Thailand : DDproperty.com | Thinkofliving.com
Singapore : PropertyGuru.com.sg | CommercialGuru.com.sg | PropertyGuruFinance.com.sg | Sendhelper.com
Malaysia : PropertyGuru.com.my | iProperty.com.my
Indonesia : Rumah.com
Vietnam : Batdongsan.com.vn | Dothi.net
Asia : PropertyGuruGroup.com | AsiaPropertyAwards.com | AsiaRealEstateSummit.com | PropertyGuruForBusiness.com
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