AIS's ratings reflect its solid market position as Thailand's leading mobile and fixed broadband operator and its conservative financial profile. Fitch expects AIS will continue to generate solid operating cash flow, as well as maintain its market share and financial leverage consistent with the ratings.
Key Rating Drivers
Strong Credit Profile: AIS has leading positions in mobile and broadband, with about 50% and 47% revenue market share, respectively. Expansion into enterprise, data centre, cloud and virtual banking should diversify revenue sources, strengthen its market position and support steady cash flow amid slower economic growth. The rating is also supported by AIS's robust financial profile, driven by its low leverage with ample headroom, and strong profitability underpinned by ongoing rational competition.
Robust Financial Profile: Fitch expects AIS's financial leverage to remain strong over the next two to three years with EBITDA net leverage of 0.9x-1.0x in 2025-2027 (3Q25: 1.0x; 2024: 1.0x). Fitch forecasts neutral to slightly positive free cash flow in 2025 and 2026, as robust cash flow from operations should be sufficient to cover capex and dividends. Capex for network expansion should be moderate as network coverage is sufficient for medium-term demand growth. The 2.1GHz spectrum acquired in August 2025 will also support medium-term capacity needs.
Steady Operating Cash Flow: Fitch expects AIS's EBITDA will continue to grow to THB95 billion-THB96 billion per year in 2025 and 2026 (9M25: THB75 billion, 2024: THB86 billion). This is likely to be driven by increasing demand for broadband and mobile data services. We believe average revenue per user (ARPU) for its mobile service will improve, although at a slower rate, supported by benign competition and an increase in high-value service offerings.
Rational Competition to Continue: Fitch believes the Thai mobile sector will continue to benefit from rational price competition, which will support AIS's ARPU and revenue growth. The mobile and broadband sectors have grown healthily after more stable competition following the merger of True Corporation Public Company Limited and Total Access Communication Public Company Limited, and AIS's acquisition of Triple three broadband in 2023. Operators now focus on profitability and service quality, and we expect competition to remain benign in the next few years.
Ratings Equalised: The ratings of AIS and AWN are equalised, reflecting AIS's 'High' strategic and operational incentives and 'Weak' legal incentive to support its subsidiary. This is underpinned by substantial contribution from AWN's mobile and broadband businesses, accounting for 94% of group revenue and 93% of EBITDA in 2024. We view management and brand overlap as 'High'. AIS fully owns AWN, controlling strategy, financial policy and investments, and the common AIS brand is used for AWN's products.
Peer Analysis
AIS's credit profile is stronger than that of Thai Beverage Public Company Limited (AA(tha)/Stable), Thailand's largest beverage producer with a strong market position in spirits and a leading share of beer sales in its key markets of Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar. Both have comparable business profiles as industry leaders. AIS has narrower geographical diversification, but its National Long-Term Rating is two notches higher due to lower financial risk.
AIS's National Long-Term Rating is at the same level as that of PTT Public Company Limited (AAA(tha)/Stable), Thailand's largest fully integrated oil and gas company. AIS has a slightly weaker business profile, and PTT's business is larger and more diversified, offsetting the volatility of its individual business segments. However, AIS's telecom business is more stable and the company has a conservative financial profile with EBITDA net leverage of 0.9x-1.0x, compared with 1.6x-2.0x for PTT.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions within Our Rating Case for the Issuer:
- Service revenue growth of around 6% a year in 2025 and 2% in 2026, reflecting the sluggish economic recovery.
- Operating EBITDA margin of around 41%-42% in 2025 and 2026.
- THB26.5 billion in network capex in 2025 and THB30.0 billion in 2026 (2024: THB25.2 billion).
- 95% dividend payout ratio.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
AIS
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
- EBITDA net leverage above 2.0x for a sustained period;
- Unfavourable regulatory changes.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
- No positive action is possible, as the rating is the highest on the National Rating scale.
AWN
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
- Negative rating action on AIS;
- Weakening in the incentives for AIS to support AWN, although we believe this is highly unlikely.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
- No positive action is possible, as the rating is the highest on the National Rating scale.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
AIS's liquidity was manageable with THB47 billion in debt maturing over the next 12 months at end-September 2025. Of that amount, AIS will partially refinance a THB15 billion loan with a similar amount of debentures issued in November 2025.
The remaining maturity of THB32 billion will be paid using its cash balance of THB15 billion at end-September 2025 and its robust operating cash flow. AIS's liquidity is enhanced by its strong ability to access the domestic debt capital market, given its strong credit profile.