Market rebounds in Q4 after a steep drop in Q2
Yod Chinsupakul, CEO of LINE MAN Wongnai, said: "The first half of 2025 marked the lowest point for the restaurant sector, with sales per store dropping -14% in Q2. But the market turned positive in the second half — up +1% in Q3 and +5% in Q4 (Oct-Nov data) — reflecting a broad recovery in consumer spending supported by Half-Half Plus."
Although new restaurant openings grew 3% in the second half, the closure rate remained high at 50%, signaling continued pressure from rising operating costs and intense competition.
"Half-Half Plus" boosts spending and delivers nearly 6x growth for small restaurants
The government stimulus unlocked spending at scale, and LINE MAN — the No.1 delivery platform in "Half-half Plus" — helped channel demand efficiently to restaurants and riders. Key highlights include:
- LINE MAN is the primary delivery platform for the program, with 65% of participating restaurants choosing to sell on LINE MAN. Sales generated from Half-Half Plus accounted for 63% of total sales in the program — the highest share in the market.
- Over 8 million Half-Half Plus delivery orders were placed within 3 weeks.
- Restaurants nationwide saw sales grow 4.2x on average, with top performers growing over 10x — higher than in previous stimulus rounds.
- The program expanded the customer base significantly: new customers +22%, order frequency +15%, and average basket size +30%.
What stands out most is how Half-Half Plus helped "small restaurants" (earning less than THB 10,000 per month) achieve real growth, with sales surging 5.9x compared with before the program. Mid-sized restaurants (earning more than THB 10,000 per month) saw sales double. This reflects a clear trickle-down impact, channeling spending directly to smaller operators. Riders also benefited, with their average income rising 15-25%, driven by higher daily order volumes.
Top "Half-Half Plus" menu items ordered on LINE MAN included Thai milk tea, spicy papaya salad (som tam), green milk tea, cocoa drink, and spicy jungle papaya salad. The program also drove high-value "premium orders," with top items such as salmon, premium durian, grilled prawns, steamed crab roe, and suckling pig — with the highest bill reaching THB 1,700, indicating consumers used the program to try higher-priced items.
Strong recovery outside Bangkok, while hotspot areas in the capital remain slow
In Q4 (Oct-Nov 2025), provincial markets recovered faster than Bangkok, with sales per store rising +7% (from -11% in Q2), while Bangkok grew only +2% (from -16% in Q2). Tourist hubs such as Chiang Mai (+9%), Pattaya (+12%), and Phuket (+7%) also strengthened as travel demand returned.
Half-Half Plus drove substantial growth in provincial markets. Top-performing provinces compared to pre-program sales were: Chanthaburi (+9.4x), Nong Bua Lamphu (+9.3x), Uttaradit (+8.9x), Udon Thani (+8x), and Chiang Rai (+7x).
Despite year-end improvements, Bangkok remains the slowest to recover. Several "hotspot zones" remain negative:
- Central business district (Sukhumvit-Silom-Sathorn): sales per store at -19% in Q2, improving but still slightly negative at -1% in Oct-Nov YoY
- Banthat Thong: hardest hit, at -35% in Q2 and -21% in late 2025
- Restaurants in malls showed the clearest rebound, rising from -21% in Q2 to +1% in Oct-Nov — the only segment in Bangkok to return to positive growth
Consumer behavior 2025: Value-first mindset, with menus under THB 500 driving resilience
LINE MAN Wongnai data shows that Thai consumers prioritize value more than before. Menus under THB 500 were least affected, with sales dropping only -12% in Q2 and rebounding +5% in Oct-Nov. In contrast, higher-ticket items (above THB 500) saw deeper pressure: -14% in Q2, recovering to +4% at year-end, but still growing slower than low-cost options — reflecting cautious mid-income spending in a tight economy.
In 2025, the restaurant market showed early signs of recovery, but Thai consumers became more selective — choosing value-driven menus and spending more only when supported by incentives like Half-Half Plus. This sets the stage for 2026 as a pivotal year, with questions around whether the market can sustain its momentum once government stimulus ends. For LINE MAN Wongnai, the year-end results reinforce its role as a key platform connecting government programs to consumers, effectively distributing income to restaurants nationwide and helping keep Thailand's food ecosystem moving forward during a fragile economic period.
