JLL Thailand (NYSE: JLL), a leading real estate services firm, expects Thailand's real estate market to enter 2026 in a more selective and structurally differentiated phase, as investors, developers, and occupiers adjust to shifting demand drivers, tighter capital discipline, and evolving use patterns across sectors. Based on JLL Thailand's outlook, growth opportunities remain present but are increasingly concentrated in assets aligned with long-term macro trends and changing occupier and investor requirements.
Hospitality recovery and hotel investment
In the hospitality sector, Thailand continues to demonstrate resilience despite intensifying competition from neighbouring destinations and a slower recovery of Mainland Chinese tourism. International arrivals are forecast to reach 35.5 million in 2026, representing 8% growth from 32.9 million arrivals in 2025. While Chinese tourists were slower to return, arrivals from markets such as India and Russia recorded notable growth in 2025. Hotel investment activity remained strong, reaching THB 26.4 billion, almost double the 10-year historical average between 2016 and 2025, with more than 75% of transaction volume concentrated in Bangkok hotels. The majority of transactions were value-add in nature, with incoming owners expected to reposition assets. Investment activity in 2026 is expected to normalise to approximately THB 13 billion, reflecting a more measured transaction environment.
Data centre expansion and industrial growth
Structural demand drivers are also shaping opportunities in industrial and logistics, with data centres and high-value industries emerging as increasingly important sources of demand alongside e-commerce. BOI-approved digital industry investments exceeded THB 746 billion in 2025, underscoring Thailand's growing role as a regional hub for data centre development in Southeast Asia. The sector is projected to grow 40-60% over the next three years, with 360MW of capacity planned in both 2026 and 2027. The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) continues to dominate with 54.8% of total stock, while the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) serves as a critical connectivity hub supported by expansion from new colocation operators. JLL's experience advising international data centre operators indicates that this expansion is accompanied by increasing constraints in land acquisition and site selection. Suitable plots with adequate power grid capacity, fibre infrastructure, and cooling requirements are becoming scarcer in prime locations. Developers are undertaking intensive due diligence processes assessing power reliability, environmental compliance, and long-term utility scalability before committing to large-scale investments.
Sustained momentum in Industrial & Logistics
Thailand's manufacturing sector delivered robust performance in 2025, supported by significant export growth and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, reinforcing its strategic position as a preferred destination for China+1 diversification initiatives. Industrial estate net absorption surpassed 24,000 rai during the 2021-1H25 period, compressing the nationwide vacancy rate to 14.6%. This expansion was primarily driven by Chinese manufacturers establishing operations across the automotive, metal products, and electrical appliances industries as part of broader supply chain rebalancing strategies. JLL expects strong demand to persist across Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and Bangkok's eastern vicinities during 2026.
More selective capital markets and land strategies
In capital markets, land investment activity continues, but with greater selectivity. High-net-worth individuals are becoming more active in acquiring land and real estate, while placing stronger emphasis on value and deal discipline in the current market. Foreign investors remain active in exploring assets aligned with Thailand's macro trends — notably data centres, industrial and logistics, and hotels — with foreign ownership structures linked to BOI promotion remaining a key consideration. Developers are also more selective than in the pre-Covid cycle, with land acquisition ticket sizes trending smaller. Whereas condominium developments previously targeted plots of three (3) to six (6) rai, the current market is seeing interest in sites that are much smaller with the upward threshold of three (3) rai. Leasehold land structures are becoming more prominent, reflecting lower upfront capital requirements while enabling development in unique locations where freehold economics may be less feasible to recurring income assets. Market attention to leasehold structures was reinforced by notable transactions in 2025, including the widely reported long-term land lease deal in Asoke-Phromphong area.
Latent demand for sustainable workspaces set to drive office relocation surge
The office sector is seeing a more granular form of flight-to-quality. Approximately 528,000 square metres from 12 projects are expected to be added in 2026. Demand movements in Bangkok's Central Business Area (CBA) reached approximately 88,200 square metres of net absorption in 2025, above the five-year market average, and are expected to continue absorbing space in 2026 amid a slowdown in supply within CBA. At the same time, supply and demand growth are shifting toward northern and eastern hubs, where more than 230,000 square metres across seven projects are scheduled for completion in 2026 following the entry of several prime offices in 2025. JLL expects to see robust relocation demand in these hubs similar to the precedent cases in CBA.
ESG requirements are increasingly shaping leasing decisions. According to JLL Research, 53 of the top 100 corporate occupiers with ESG commitments remain in non-green buildings, representing approximately 420,000 square metres of potential relocation demand. Demand for flexible workspace is also re-emerging in Bangkok's office market as tenants prioritise lower capital expenditure amid economic uncertainty. Multinational corporations are increasingly adopting flexible solutions despite significant headcount requirements, with wholesale and retail trade companies leading adoption, followed by technology firms. JLL observes this trend through operators' expansion plans and landlords' willingness to offer solutions, with flexible workspace now commonly integrated into new office developments and renovations.
Experiential retail and brand expansion
In retail, performance continues to diverge by asset type and positioning. Within the BMR, experiential retail and asset repositioning strategies are gaining traction, with hypermarket operators introducing new lifestyle-oriented formats and large-scale renovations in major CBA malls through themed concepts and partnerships with international anchors. International retailer and brand entries remain elevated, with more than 890 new units added during 2024-2025 based on JLL's survey. Fashion brands accounted for 43.3% of activity, followed by food and beverage (32.8%) and household products (16.4%). This momentum is expected to continue in 2026, particularly from Mainland Chinese brands pursuing regional diversification strategies.
"Thailand's market is not moving as a single story across all sectors," said Krit Pimhataivoot, Country Head & Head of Capital Markets, JLL Thailand. "What we are seeing is a more selective cycle, where demand and capital are concentrating in areas supported by structural drivers — including data-centre-led activity, industrial and logistics related assets, unique offerings in hospitality, and a more precise flight-to-quality in offices. In the current environment, the ability to match strategy to the realities of each sector and each submarket becomes the differentiator."
"The Thai commercial real estate market has entered a phase where future-proofing quality and adaptability are becoming decisive competitive advantages. Our data shows a widening performance gap between assets strategically positioned for long-term structural changes versus those chasing cyclical opportunities," said Anawin Chiamprasert, Head of Research & Consultancy, JLL Thailand. "Demand is concentrating around sectors linked to digital infrastructure, sustainability and evolving consumer experiences. Investors are responding by becoming more creative and disciplined in capital allocation, focusing on specific asset classes and high-growth locations that can sustain occupancy and income resilience through prolonged economic challenges and competitive market landscape."
Across sectors, JLL Thailand expects 2026 to be characterised by targeted growth rather than broad-based recovery, with market participants increasingly focused on assets and structures that align with long-term demand themes and operational realities.